The basic security of China's pharmaceutical manufacturing industry is promising in the future market potential

Business News, November 30th, “At present, China's pharmaceutical manufacturing industry is in a state of basic safety, but the difficulties and challenges it faces are still severe.” The 2009-2010 Annual Report of “China's Pharmaceutical Manufacturing Industry Safety Assessment Report” released for the first time recently Based on the above conclusions, the industry safety score is 63 points and the overall rating is “B+”.

The author of "China's Pharmaceutical Manufacturing Industry Safety Assessment Report" (2009-2010), leader of the Pharmaceutical Industry Security Early Warning Research Group and Director of the General Department of China Medicare Association, said in an interview that the Chinese pharmaceutical manufacturing industry The competitiveness is increasing year by year, but the industrial safety situation still faces many challenges. China's pharmaceutical industry needs to rely on the current power of the pharmaceutical economy to increase its annual growth rate by more than 20% to catch up, to take advantage of its latecomers, and to rapidly increase the international competitiveness of the industry. To a higher level.

At the same time, Xu Ming also emphasized that the improvement of the industrial competitiveness of China's pharmaceutical manufacturing industry must be based on the premise of improving the competitiveness of enterprises. It requires a group of companies with strength, vision, and daring to explore the market in order to make the entire pharmaceutical industry faster. Step into the international market.

The reporter learned that the safety of China's pharmaceutical manufacturing industry is an important part of China's pharmaceutical economy. Especially after China's accession to the WTO, industrial safety reflects the Chinese pharmaceutical industry's resistance to external interference or threats, and continues to achieve sustained development. It reflects the dominance and competitiveness of China's pharmaceutical industry, and is a concentrated reflection of the overall quality of the pharmaceutical industry at different stages of development.

However, with the deepening of participation in international competition, the situation facing China's pharmaceutical industry security is also becoming increasingly severe. So, how to build an effective evaluation system to track, analyze, and provide important decision-making basis in real time has become a top priority.

The pharmaceutical manufacturing industry is a sunrise industry that integrates capital, technology, and knowledge-intensive industries. It is also a strategic industry that involves the national economy and people's livelihood. After decades of development, China's pharmaceutical manufacturing industry has made tremendous achievements and has become a world's largest pharmaceutical country. Among them, Western medicine production ranks first in the world, and raw material medicine production ranks first in the world.

However, as a large country with a population of 1.3 billion, under the current background of the comprehensive advancement of the medical system reform, China has also become the main market competing for international pharmaceutical companies, and the game between domestic and foreign pharmaceutical companies has become increasingly complex. China's pharmaceutical manufacturing industry is facing multiple tasks of upgrading its industrial structure, ensuring relatively stable domestic market share, and expanding its international market. In view of this, it is of great practical significance to conduct empirical analysis on pharmaceutical manufacturing (including western medicine preparations, western medicine raw material medicines, biochemical medicines, and manufacturing of traditional Chinese medicine products).

In order to further understand the report's analysis of the competitiveness of the pharmaceutical industry and the general conclusions, the reporter focused on the main contents and issues covered by the four major indicators covered in the report, and asked Xu Ming to interpret it in order to provide readers with an overall General understanding.

"Pharmaceutical Economic News": In the "China's Pharmaceutical Manufacturing Industry Safety Assessment Report" (hereinafter referred to as the "Report"), industry benchmarks, industry scale, industry structure, upstream industry, and other indicators have relatively high scores, but the industry price Scored only 54 points. Is this phenomenon normal in China? What is the reason? The scores of various indicators reflect the status quo of the industrial base.

"Pharmaceutical Economic News": The report gives the reason why the score of listing financing is only 62 points? What is the problem with the 40-point score for China's trade relief policy?

Xu Ming: In fact, currently there are more than 130 Chinese pharmaceutical companies listed on the market, but the proportion of the total number of pharmaceutical companies in the country is still very small. Because the opening of the GEM has provided more and more companies with more convenient Financing channels, many companies are preparing for listing, so we believe that the listing environment of pharmaceutical companies is improving.

In terms of trade remedy, in fact, in recent years, the absolute number of antitrust and anti-dumping investigations encountered in the pharmaceutical trade has not been large. However, it must be noted that the trade of Chinese pharmaceutical companies has been spotted by various countries, including emerging market countries, and pharmaceutical companies must maintain high vigilance at all times. Because after the financial crisis, various factors of uncertainty and instability have increased dramatically. In order to ensure the domestic product's share in the international market, countries will inevitably boycott products from countries such as China.

Therefore, in the future, the difficulties faced by China's pharmaceutical international trade will shift from traditional markets to more traditional ones and emerging markets.

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Evaluation system data acquisition

In the Industrial Safety Assessment Report of China's Pharmaceutical Manufacturing Industry, the assessment framework for the safety of the pharmaceutical industry is based on multiple data sources and mainly includes data from relevant government departments such as the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Commerce, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the General Administration of Customs. The data of the network and related statistical yearbooks and relevant authorities at home and abroad, such as IMS Medical Consulting, McKinsey Consulting, Ernst & Young Hua Ming, and the China Chamber of Commerce for the Import and Export of Medicines and Health Products. In addition, in order to ensure the reliability and timeliness of information at the enterprise level, the evaluation system has established a mechanism for direct contact and direct reporting of key enterprises, covering typical enterprises in different regions, scales, and types, and collecting primary information from enterprises to collect information on major data sources. Supplements and amendments. The evaluation framework uses 2004 as the statistical base year and has established a database covering more than 70 categories and thousands of data. 37% of the data in the database are updated annually, 39% of the data are updated on a quarterly basis, and 24% of the data can be updated monthly. . Considering the cycle of data updates, the assessment model intends to publish safety assessment results every six months. In order to achieve comparability and uniformity among different types of data, the normalization was performed. The formula is: X-unification=(X-min)/(maximum-minimum).

Evaluation system setting

Based on the analysis of the current status of China's pharmaceutical manufacturing industry and the national economy, four categories of indicators, ie industry base, industrial competitiveness, foreign dependence, and scientific development, are set as first-level indicators, and corresponding second and third-level indicators are set. It is difficult to accurately quantify indicators related to policy environment, system, and major quality safety incidents, such as whether the pharmaceutical industry's financing system is perfect, government supervision performance, and the effect of crisis management, so it is used as an external index to score separately. That is, a "4+1" rating framework has been adopted. The evaluation system uses the three-level index as the basic scoring target, and weights its scores to the corresponding secondary indicators, which are then weighted and aggregated into the first-level indicators. Finally, the first-level indicators are weighted and averaged to obtain the degree of industrial safety. The four quantifiable first-level indicators consist of 18 secondary indicators and 51 tertiary indicators, which assess the degree of industrial safety from a variety of perspectives. Among the first-level indicators, industrial competitiveness is given a higher weight, that is, 35%. Scientific development is crucial to the future development of the industry. Therefore, 25% of the weight is assigned to the industry, and the other first-level indicators are given a weight of 20%. The evaluation results are expressed in terms of percentages. The scoring range is: 80 to 100 points (safety, A), 60 to 80 points (basic safety, B), 40 to 60 points (unsafe, C), and 20 to 40 (crisis , for D), 20 points or less (serious crisis, E), externality score for extra points "+" or minus "-".

As a basic part of the evaluation system, the rating of the three-level indicators is obtained through the evaluation of the long-term trends and short-term trends of the data. Among them, the long-term trend is concerned with the historical trend of data, including the initial level (baseline 2004 level), long-term growth rate (linearity of the standardized data regression slope), stability (the fluctuation of standardized data); short-term trends focus on recent changes in the data, Including the latest level (current level), short-term growth (current year and year-on-year), degree of deviation (degree of deterioration of current data). The long-term trend focuses on historical trends. Changes in the current period have limited impact on them, so the changes are slower and are low-sensitivity variables; short-term trends are on the current period and may change rapidly with changes in data, so they are called highly sensitive variables. The weights of the three indicators are divided into three categories: ordinary (1%), important (2%), and very important (3%).

Xu Ming: We have found from the data analysis that there are many problems in the entire domestic drug price generation mechanism. According to statistical data, the investigation team believes that the price of medicines in the manufacturing process is not high, the profits of the production enterprises are relatively thin, and most of the profits of medicines are obtained from drug distribution and terminal links, including the new one to be implemented. The round of price cuts, all bringing the responsibility directly to the head of the production enterprise is a "wrong board". This phenomenon should be said to be abnormal.

In contrast, most of the foreign companies' drugs have independent intellectual property rights and can form monopoly prices. As a result, the prices of pharmaceuticals are relatively high, and most of the profits are obtained by pharmaceutical manufacturers. However, the profitability of drug circulation is very thin. This is a very big contrast with China.

In other words, the Chinese pharmaceutical industry base still has many problems from the price point of view. If an enterprise does not obtain a certain profit return through price increase, it will be difficult to have enough and stable capital to invest in new product reproduction. R&D and talent training.

So, in general, our industry base is still relatively fragile.

“Pharmaceutical Economic News”: According to the report, the proportion of the output value of leading enterprises has dropped from 15% in 2004 to 10%. What does this change indicate?

Xu Ming: The leading companies mentioned here refer to the top 10 domestic sales companies. The ratio of their total output value to the total output value of the pharmaceutical industry has dropped from 15% to 10%. From an industrial organization's point of view, Chinese pharmaceutical companies, especially leading companies, have not yet been cultivated and their competitiveness is declining. At the same time, it also shows that in the past we did not pay attention to the cultivation of leading enterprises. The pattern of many, small, and miscellaneous pharmaceutical companies has not been fundamentally changed. And some of the current leading enterprises are not created through market competition, but are forced together by artificial or administrative means, so they are large and not strong.

“Pharmaceutical Economic News”: In the report’s industrial competitiveness index, the industry’s cost index is 60 points and the foreign trade index is 43 points; while in the foreign dependency index, the import and export dependency score is about 50 points; all import and export The score on import and export dependence of high-value-added products is also around 50 points, which reflects the state of the domestic pharmaceutical import and export trade.

Xu Ming: We have conducted statistical analysis on eight factors including the capital efficiency of enterprises, including the financial status of companies, the credit status of banks, and the services provided by financial institutions at home and abroad to provide financing services for pharmaceutical companies. It was found that Chinese pharmaceutical companies passed the domestic market. The process of financing by foreign financial institutions has encountered many problems. The cost of financing is high, there are few financing channels, and there are few channels for providing effective financing services for enterprises. The state's financial support for pharmaceutical companies needs to be strengthened.

In terms of foreign trade, the total import and export dependency is 36%, the export dependency is 22%, and the import dependency is 14%. The overall dependence on imports and exports is lower than the national overall import and export dependence on foreign trade (44%), indicating that the extent to which Chinese pharmaceutical manufacturers participate in international cooperation and competition is still relatively low.

I believe that the pharmaceutical industry is basically an all-round open industry. To make rapid progress in China's pharmaceutical manufacturing, it must be integrated into the global environment of international competition and cooperation. At the same time, these indicators also indicate that we are participating in international competition and there are new expansions. Space also leaves some room for foreign capital to enter the Chinese market. Therefore, we need to optimize the overall degree of import and export of pharmaceutical manufacturing, increase the degree of dependence on exports, increase the export of high-value-added products such as pharmaceutical preparations, and at the same time reduce the degree of import dependence, and gradually realize “import substitution”.

"Pharmaceutical Economic News": The report also shows that foreign direct investment indicators scored as high as 71 points, while the sales of the foreign-funded enterprises accounted for only 44 points, reflecting the attitudes and behaviors of foreign companies in the Chinese market. Variety?

Xu Ming: Through the analysis of domestic pharmaceutical market data, it can be found that currently foreign-funded enterprises account for about 30% of the domestic market share. The original foreign-funded enterprises basically entered China through joint ventures, but they now prefer direct investment, which shows that the Chinese pharmaceutical industry is directly The work of absorbing foreign investment has done very well.

However, in terms of sales, I believe that the proportion of foreign-funded enterprises in the pharmaceutical market may still have a certain increase in the future, but the increase will not be too large. And it should be noted that pharmaceutical manufacturing does not increase the investment, the greater the sales, which is bound by the domestic regulatory environment. China is a country with a large population. The state must regard the pharmaceutical industry as a pillar industry that involves the national economy and the people's livelihood. Excessive reliance on foreign capital can cause hidden dangers in the national economy and people's livelihood. Therefore, foreign capital can account for a certain percentage, but it should not occupy an overwhelming proportion.

In addition, the direct investment index score is so high, indicating that foreign companies are very optimistic about China's potential to become the world's third market in the future. In the future, China will play a dual role in the international pharmaceutical market: it is the world's largest supplier of raw material medicines, and it is also the world's leading pharmaceutical market.

"Pharmaceutical Economic News": In the report, under the three indicators of scientific development indicators, the score given to market share is 74 points, the international new drug brand is 0 points, and the domestic well-known brands account for 54 points, which shows that What are the problems with pharmaceutical companies and what are their future development trends?

Xu Ming: These indicators show that the domestic pharmaceutical companies' R&D and innovation capabilities are still weak. However, after entering the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan” period, China will have a group of companies with leading innovation and pioneering awareness, and will build their own brands to go international. By then, China's pharmaceutical manufacturing will be transformed from the existing large-scale imitation to imitation integration, the domestic famous brands, led by leading companies, into international famous brands, to create the world's generic brand products. However, we still cannot achieve the original research drug with truly independent intellectual property rights, and it is very difficult for independent innovative drugs to become international flagship products in the short term.

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