It is inevitable that fluctuations in the center of gravity of the oil and grease can occur

In the first quarter of 2012, domestic agricultural products generally rose. Except that corn and early indica rice have been at historically high levels, most other varieties such as sugar and cotton are still far away from historical highs. However, at this moment and one hour, the environment in which the current agricultural products can not support the start of the overall bull market, under the interweaving of long and short, the market in the "up" machine also contains adjustment crisis.

Compared to other breeds, oil bulls are more optimistic. The pattern of tight supply and demand and the slight turn of the macro atmosphere have all formed strong support for the media.

On the one hand, the tight oil and oil pattern supports the upward shift of the center of gravity. Due to the reduction of South American production, US beans have obtained an unexpected export share, the inventory situation is further strained, and the US beans planting area may not exceed the level of 75 million acres last year. The United States has to undertake a heavier supply task. As a result, ending stocks fell to lows in recent years, so long-term bullish US beans. Since the beginning of the year, the rebound rate of US soybeans has been nearly 18%, which has led to significant growth in downstream products such as oil and hydrazine.

On the other hand, macro-level support also supports agricultural products. The rise in international oil prices has strengthened the expectations for the growth of biofuel production and enhanced the conductive support for oil and fat. Domestically, there have been signs of fine-tuning of the policy. The overall situation is slightly looser than in the second half of last year. With the improvement of market funds, the enthusiasm for buying and selling will also be improved, and there will be support for the spot market.

Therefore, the overall gravity center of the domestic oil and fat is expected to move further, but the process will inevitably fluctuate. Taking the soybean oil index as an example, the domestic oil market is only close to the lower part of the main range of oil and fat running in 2011. The trend since the end of last year is only a round of corrections to the part of the second half of the slump, which is currently close to the stage target position. There is a possibility of repeated shocks. Looking at the medium to long-term trend, the possibility of returning to the overall operating range in 2011 still exists. Therefore, if significant adjustments are made in the near future, it may be considered to establish long-term medium and long-term multiple orders.